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Methods for Semi-Quantitative Oil Spill Risk Assessment for Coastal Alaska

SessionRisk Assessment & Operational Visualization

DescriptionThere is currently no guidance or standardized methodology for Area Committees and specifically the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) to conduct risk assessments for oil spill planning. Risk assessments are a critical part of Area Contingency Plans. The USCG Sector Anchorage has the largest geographical area in the country, exercising authority in a jurisdiction extending throughout Western Alaska, the North Slope, and from the Aleutian Islands east to Prince William Sound. As part of a larger effort to quantify spill risk, that includes both the likelihood of spill incidents from coastal facilities and vessel traffic and the consequences of those incidents, this project developed an approach for a qualitative analysis of the sensitivity and consequence scoring for the following environmental resource categories: shorelines, protected sites, and six subcategories of sensitive plants and animals. The scoring methodology followed guidance in the International Maritime Organization 2010 Manual on Risk Assessment and Response Preparedness. The method includes: 1) identification of sensitive habitats, areas, and species in each category; 2) Definition of factors to assign a sensitivity score for each category/subcategory; 3) Assignment of the sensitivity score for each factor then summation of all individual scores for each category/subcategory; 4) Development of rules for assigning consequence scores appropriate for each category/subcategory; and 5) Use of oil spill modeling trajectories and geospatial data on the resource presence, concentration, and seasonality to calculate the final consequence score for each category for different oil spill scenarios. Example calculations are provided for a spill scenario.

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