Presentation
Using Foresight Theory to Envision Climate-Ready Oil Spill Preparedness and Response
SessionOil Spill Planning
DescriptionHuman activities are changing the climate, with wide-ranging implications to human populations, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Climate change, hazards and policy are rapidly changing the landscape of oil spill risk, prevention, and response.
As the climate changes, there will be major implications to coastlines and coastal communities. Climate hazards and adaptation strategies may alter the nature and severity of oil spill risks, while changing the efficacy of spill response systems. We have already experienced concurrent oil spills during climate-related storm and flooding events. The potential for such incidents will increase as the frequency and severity of climate hazards increase.
Coastal marsh habitats, which have long been recognized as a sensitive ecological receptor at risk of oil spill impacts, are now recognized as providing an important climate buffer. These new and changing values may require a re-assessment of oil spill response strategies and protection priorities.
Decarbonization targets are already changing oil and gas storage and transportation infrastructure. The shift away from petroleum fuels for ships and vehicles may create transient risks as alternative fuels emerge and change bunkering practices and infrastructure. New ship fuels are causing responders to re-think response to future shipping incidents. The proliferation of electric vehicles (EV) are creating new challenges for vehicle carriers, because of challenges in extinguishing EV fires.
The changing climate creates uncertainty regarding future oil spill risks, preparedness, and response systems. Traditional oil spill risk assessments and planning models may not be adequate to prepare for this uncertain future. Foresight theory and practice, which are emerging tools used to support climate change policy development, may also have a role in building climate-ready oil spill planning, risk assessment, and response. The methodology does not seek to predict the future but instead to envision the scope of possible changes so that decision-makers and practitioners may anticipate a range of potential risks and opportunities.
This paper and presentation will report on a workshop series where oil spill response experts and climate change specialists participated in future scenario analysis to consider the future of oil spill planning and response. Participants systematically assess and map future climate hazards, adaptations, and decarbonization trends to develop a series of future risk scenarios. Participants then rank emerging issues based on certainty and impact. Focusing on the highest risk scenarios, participants work backwards to identify potential mitigation strategies to avoid or reduce adverse impacts.
As the climate changes, there will be major implications to coastlines and coastal communities. Climate hazards and adaptation strategies may alter the nature and severity of oil spill risks, while changing the efficacy of spill response systems. We have already experienced concurrent oil spills during climate-related storm and flooding events. The potential for such incidents will increase as the frequency and severity of climate hazards increase.
Coastal marsh habitats, which have long been recognized as a sensitive ecological receptor at risk of oil spill impacts, are now recognized as providing an important climate buffer. These new and changing values may require a re-assessment of oil spill response strategies and protection priorities.
Decarbonization targets are already changing oil and gas storage and transportation infrastructure. The shift away from petroleum fuels for ships and vehicles may create transient risks as alternative fuels emerge and change bunkering practices and infrastructure. New ship fuels are causing responders to re-think response to future shipping incidents. The proliferation of electric vehicles (EV) are creating new challenges for vehicle carriers, because of challenges in extinguishing EV fires.
The changing climate creates uncertainty regarding future oil spill risks, preparedness, and response systems. Traditional oil spill risk assessments and planning models may not be adequate to prepare for this uncertain future. Foresight theory and practice, which are emerging tools used to support climate change policy development, may also have a role in building climate-ready oil spill planning, risk assessment, and response. The methodology does not seek to predict the future but instead to envision the scope of possible changes so that decision-makers and practitioners may anticipate a range of potential risks and opportunities.
This paper and presentation will report on a workshop series where oil spill response experts and climate change specialists participated in future scenario analysis to consider the future of oil spill planning and response. Participants systematically assess and map future climate hazards, adaptations, and decarbonization trends to develop a series of future risk scenarios. Participants then rank emerging issues based on certainty and impact. Focusing on the highest risk scenarios, participants work backwards to identify potential mitigation strategies to avoid or reduce adverse impacts.
Event Type
Paper
TimeThursday, May 16th10:40am - 11:00am CDT
Location291-292
Preparedness