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Oil in ice modeling and risk analysis in the Great Lakes

DescriptionModeling of oil spill transport and fate in freshwater, particularly in the Great Lakes, has been less explored than in marine environments, resulting in serious uncertainties for emergency response for accidental oil spills in this region. Additionally, oil spill behaviors under icy conditions are highly complex and not fully explored. To enhance our understanding of oil spill transport and risk in the Great Lakes, we conducted a modeling study using the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) and the hydrodynamic-ice model outputs from the experimental version of the NOAA’s Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) based on the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model coupled with the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (FVCOM-CICE). We used the observed drifter data to validate the model performance and explored how ice affected oil spill trajectories from possible spills in Lake Erie with and without ice processes. Results showed that: 1) The GNOME oil spill model was validated to work properly with the new FVCOM-CICE implementation while we identified a few limitations/errors in the GNOME code, which are currently being addressed; 2) Ice cover reduces the oil spread/transport, leading to a decrease in the area with a higher probability of oil presence (percentage of cases), especially during spills occurring in high-concentration ice areas. This study demonstrates the model system as a valuable guide for emergency response planning for oil spill events. This research is part of efforts supported by the United States Coast Guard Great Lakes Oil Spill Center of Expertise.

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