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UID:IOSC_IOSC 2024_sess162_PAPER160@linklings.com
SUMMARY:Using Foresight Theory to Envision Climate-Ready Oil Spill Prepare
 dness and Response
DESCRIPTION:Paper\n\nElise DeCola and Sam Butler (Nuka Research & Planning
  Group)\n\nHuman activities are changing the climate, with wide-ranging im
 plications to human populations, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Climate c
 hange, hazards and policy are rapidly changing the landscape of oil spill 
 risk, prevention, and response. \n\nAs the climate changes, there will be 
 major implications to coastlines and coastal communities. Climate hazards 
 and adaptation strategies may alter the nature and severity of oil spill r
 isks, while changing the efficacy of spill response systems. We have alrea
 dy experienced concurrent oil spills during climate-related storm and floo
 ding events. The potential for such incidents will increase as the frequen
 cy and severity of climate hazards increase. \n\nCoastal marsh habitats, w
 hich have long been recognized as a sensitive ecological receptor at risk 
 of oil spill impacts, are now recognized as providing an important climate
  buffer. These new and changing values may require a re-assessment of oil 
 spill response strategies and protection priorities.\n\nDecarbonization ta
 rgets are already changing oil and gas storage and transportation infrastr
 ucture. The shift away from petroleum fuels for ships and vehicles may cre
 ate transient risks as alternative fuels emerge and change bunkering pract
 ices and infrastructure.  New ship fuels are causing responders to re-thin
 k response to future shipping incidents. The proliferation of electric veh
 icles (EV) are creating new challenges for vehicle carriers, because of ch
 allenges in extinguishing EV fires.\n\nThe changing climate creates uncert
 ainty regarding future oil spill risks, preparedness, and response systems
 . Traditional oil spill risk assessments and planning models may not be ad
 equate to prepare for this uncertain future. Foresight theory and practice
 , which are emerging tools used to support climate change policy developme
 nt, may also have a role in building climate-ready oil spill planning, ris
 k assessment, and response. The methodology does not seek to predict the f
 uture but instead to envision the scope of possible changes so that decisi
 on-makers and practitioners may anticipate a range of potential risks and 
 opportunities. \n\nThis paper and presentation will report on a workshop s
 eries where oil spill response experts and climate change specialists part
 icipated in future scenario analysis to consider the future of oil spill p
 lanning and response. Participants systematically assess and map future cl
 imate hazards, adaptations, and decarbonization trends to develop a series
  of future risk scenarios. Participants then rank emerging issues based on
  certainty and impact. Focusing on the highest risk scenarios, participant
 s work backwards to identify potential mitigation strategies to avoid or r
 educe adverse impacts.\n\nTag: Preparedness\n\nSession Chair: Jereme Alten
 dorf (US Coast Guard, Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies)
URL:https://iosc2024.conference-program.com/presentation/?id=PAPER160&sess
 =sess162
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